what follows could be even worse

Source
Sydney Morning Herald

As our sodden and flood-weary country emerges from three long years of La Nina, there’s a different threat looming just over the horizon.

Firefighters know that “grass fires follow floods”. The grass and forest regrowth that springs up so quickly during rainy seasons, even in areas that are normally almost bare, quickly dies and dries out when the weather turns, becoming tinder-dry fuel for bush and grass fires.

Make no mistake, while grass fires are less intense than forest fires, they can be just as dangerous. They can start mere hours after rain stops, and often spread at breakneck speed, too fast for people to outrun. Many people have been killed when trapped in the open or in cars by fast-moving grass fires.

Their spread can be highly unpredictable and catch communities unaware. In my 51 years as a firefighter with Fire & Rescue NSW and as an RFS volunteer, I’ve sometimes been caught out when a sudden wind change sent a raging grass fire in an unexpected direction.

They’re volatile: difficult to predict and hard to tame.

As the rare, protracted La Niña wanes, and we return to hot and dry conditions, vast swathes of the drying landscape are becoming a powder keg, with millions of hectares of grassland, as well as forests, primed to burn. All it takes is a lightning strike, a carelessly tossed cigarette, or a harvesting accident to spark disaster.
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Previous protracted La Niña events give us a sense of just how bad things could be, with three similar events since the 1950s in Australia: 1954–1957, 1973–1976, and 1998–2001. During each of these periods there was prolific growth, followed by extensive grass fires in inland areas, immediately followed by major forest fires causing loss of life and property on the east coast. Homes were lost in the Blue Mountains and Sydney suburbs in 1957, 1977 and 2001/2002.
Image: SMH / Sean Davey

Fires currently raging in Australia are a taste of what could come later this year. We need to overhaul our disaster management arrangements, designed for the tamer climate of the 1990s, and prepare now for the worst.

We need increased funding for emergency services and land management agencies to prepare for and respond to escalating disasters, more funding for community disaster resilience and recovery projects, and a national climate change risk assessment and adaptation plan so that we can understand precisely what we’re dealing with.

La Niña may still have a sting in its tail, with February and March often seeing heavy rains, but don’t be fooled – we need to get ready now for the possibility of firestorms just around the corner.

Source
Sydney Morning Herald

 

 

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